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Music Sharing Doesn't Kill Cd Sales, Study Says


ForceX

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A study of file-sharing's effects on music sales says online music trading appears to have had little part in the recent slide in CD sales.

 

For the study, released Monday, researchers at Harvard University and the University of North Carolina tracked music downloads over 17 weeks in 2002, matching data on file transfers with actual market performance of the songs and albums being downloaded. Even high levels of file-swapping seemed to translate into an effect on album sales that was "statistically indistinguishable from zero," they wrote.

 

"We find that file sharing has only had a limited effect on record sales," the study's authors wrote. "While downloads occur on a vast scale, most users are likely individuals who would not have bought the album even in the absence of file sharing."

 

The study, the most detailed economic modeling survey to use data obtained directly from file-sharing networks, is sure to rekindle debates over the effects of widely used software such as Kazaa or Morpheus on an ailing record business.

 

Big record labels have seen their sales slide precipitously in the past several years, and have blamed the falling revenue in large part on rampant free music downloads online. Others have pointed to additional factors, such as lower household spending during the recession, and increased competition from other entertainment forms such as DVDs and video games, each of which have grown over the same time period.

 

Executives at file-sharing companies welcomed the survey, saying it should help persuade reluctant record company executives to use peer-to-peer networks as distribution channels for music

 

"We welcome sound research into the developing peer-to-peer industry, and this study appears to have covered some interesting ground," said Nikki Hemming, chief executive officer of Kazaa parent Sharman Networks. "Consider the possibilities if the record industry actually cooperated with companies like us instead of fighting."

 

The study, performed by Harvard Business School associate professor Felix Oberholzer and University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill associate professor Koleman Strumpf, used logs from two OpenNap servers in late 2002 to observe about 1.75 million downloads over their 17 week sample period.

 

That sample revealed interesting behavioral, as well as economic, data. Researchers found that the average user logged in only twice during that period, downloading about 17 songs. Some people vastly overshot that average, however--one user apparently logged in 71 times, downloading more than 5,000 songs.

 

The two professors narrowed their sample base by choosing a random sample of 500 albums from the sales charts of various music genres, and then compared the sales of these albums to the number of associated downloads.

 

Even in the most pessimistic version of their model, they found that it would take about 5,000 downloads to displace sales of just one physical CD, the authors wrote. Despite the huge scale of downloading worldwide, that would be only a tiny contribution to the overall slide in album sales over the past several years, they said.

 

Moreover, their data seemed to show that downloads could even have a slight positive effect on the sales of the top albums, the researchers said.

 

The study is unlikely to be the last word on the issue. Previous studies have been released showing that file sharing had both positive and negative effects on music sales.

 

The Recording Industry Association of America was quick to dismiss the results as inconsistent with earlier findings.

 

"Countless well-respected groups and analysts, including Edison Research, Forrester, and the University of Texas, among others, have all determined that illegal file sharing has adversely impacted the sales of CDs," RIAA spokeswoman Amy Weiss said in a statement. "Our own surveys show that those who are downloading more are buying less."

 

HAHAHAHAH the RIAA's legal arguement that firesharing is the cause of low CD sales has just been proven wrong....hahahah they just got POWNED.....<_<

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Yeah, the thing is if you have a radio-tape player and you hear a song you like you can record it to a tape and that's okay...similarly with TV, if you have a VCR and see a show you like and that's okay, but try to download either of them from the internet and (if the RIAA, record companies, etc... have their way) there'll be hell to pay. Now don't you think that's a bit hypocritical?

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What the hell is a Radio !?!?! And this TV you SPEAK OF! Quit messing with such objects that do not exist <_< I have more albums because of mp3s.

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Alright, I'll update that for the 21st century.

 

"If you have a broadband internet connection you can listen to any number of radio stations around the world and then record the songs you like onto your hard drive, you can also stream a number of television shows from tv stations around the world and record them onto your harddrive, but try to download it and that's not okay."

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I have one of those anti RIAA shirts...

Now THAT pwns all right there.

 

I download music constantly...even music I don't want...

But if I couldn't download I wouldn't buy CD's, I didn't listen to music at all before Napster.

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What the hell is a Radio !?!?! And this TV you SPEAK OF! Quit messing with such objects that do not exist <_< I have more albums because of mp3s.

Artists get paid royalty when a song is played on the radio. :D

 

EDIT: Wait, the song writers get royalty from radio, not the musicians.

Edited by GryphonKlaw
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Even the movie industry was pissed when the first VCR's came to the market.

But RIAA is in a category of it's own. Sometimes I'm really glad that I don't live in the US.

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